From "Strategic Silence" to Accelerated Expansion: Is the Capacity Network of Top-Tier Battery Enterprises Expanding Again?

In recent years, China's battery and new energy industry has been mired in a brutal period of profound adjustment, with power and ESS battery prices plummeting, severely compressing the profit margins of most enterprises and plunging them into losses.

Amidst this industry winter, a number of enterprises lacking core competitiveness have reluctantly exited the market, while multiple cross-industry players have delayed or terminated their projects. However, in stark contrast to the retreat of small and medium-sized enterprises, top-tier enterprises have been expanding against the trend. Since 2025, news of project planning, implementation, commencement, and operation has frequently emerged.

From the "strategic silence" of 2024 to the accelerated expansion in 2025, what gives battery top-tier enterprises the confidence to do so?

The expansion race among the first-tier enterprises has quietly begun.

According to the power battery installations data of Chinese power battery enterprises from January to May, although the TOP15 enterprise landscape maintains the leading sequence of CATL, BYD, CALB, and others, a clandestine expansion race among the first-tier enterprises has already commenced behind the scenes.

Since the beginning of this year, following projects in Xiamen, Fujian (30GWh), Portugal (15GWh), and Chengdu, Sichuan (30GWh), CALB once again commenced the construction of a high-performance lithium battery project in Changzhou, Jiangsu (25GWh) on June 18. According to incomplete statistics from dnev.cn, CALB's cumulative project capacity commenced this year has reached 100GWh. With the investment amount for the newly commenced project in Changzhou not yet specified, the investment scale of the top three commenced projects has already exceeded 42 billion yuan.

In addition to commenced projects, CALB also officially announced in May that it would establish a joint venture with a state-owned enterprise in Handan, Hebei, with a registered capital of 4 billion yuan, to develop and construct power, ESS battery, and energy storage system integration projects.

CALB is not an isolated case. As the leader in the power battery sector, CATL's expansion efforts in 2025 are also accelerating.

In June, it was reported that the first phase (Phase II) of the Xiamen Times New Energy Battery Industrial Base is targeted for delivery by the end of the year, with a total project investment of approximately 1 billion yuan. In May, the first phase (60GWh) of CATL's Jining, Shandong battery project commenced operation. In April, the first phase (30GWh) of the Luoyang, Henan base project went into full operation; the Luoyuan Times New Energy Battery Industrial Base Project (Phase I) officially commenced construction. In March, the third and fourth phases of the Luoyang base project commenced; the Dongying CATL Zero-Carbon Industrial Park project was signed, planning to construct a 40GWh capacity in Kenli District, Dongying, Shandong; the No.5 Mega Factory Project of the Fuding Times Lithium-Ion Battery Production Base was officially capped. In February, the approval opinion for the expansion project of the Shandong Times Base (30GWh) was released...

It is worth mentioning that the Luoyuan Times 40GWh New Energy Battery Industrial Base Project, which was just finalized in January this year, officially commenced construction in April, demonstrating the rapid pace of capacity expansion.

Ranking second among the top three, BYD's battery platform, FinDreams Battery, has also been busy expanding its capacity this year.

In May, the expansion project of the PACK production line of FinDreams Battery in Changsha passed the environmental impact assessment and obtained administrative approval. The total investment in the expansion project was 1 billion yuan, and after the expansion, it could produce 19 GWh of battery packs annually. In March, the first battery product rolled off the production line at the Weichai FinDreams (Yantai) New Energy Power Industrial Park, marking the official operation of Phase I of the industrial park project. It is worth mentioning that the project consists of two parts: one is the Weichai FinDreams Battery Construction Project, which, in Phase I, plans to build production lines for battery cells for commercial vehicles, off-road vehicles, and energy storage systems, with an annual capacity of 20 GWh of battery cells; the other is the Weichai (Yantai) New Energy Industrial Park Construction Project, which, in Phase I, plans to build four blade battery PACK production lines, with an annual capacity of 20 GWh of battery PACKs. In February, the construction of the three-module project of Guangxi FinDreams Battery officially commenced. Upon completion, the project could increase the annual capacity by approximately 7 GWh, and the products would be widely applied in fields such as new energy vehicles.

In addition, since the beginning of this year, BYD has successively acquired large plots of land in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, twice, with a total area of over 2,500 mu and a combined amount of nearly 800 million yuan. Reports indicate that the two plots of land acquired by BYD in Xi'an would both be used for the expansion of power battery production.

In summary, a vast expansion network led by top-tier enterprises has already been set in motion, and a showdown for the pinnacle has quietly begun.

The "Technology Positioning Battle" Behind Capacity Expansion

As the capacity of power batteries soared from 83.4 GWh in 2020 to 1 TWh in 2024, the "manufacturing dividend" relying solely on scale expansion has hit the ceiling. Second- and third-tier enterprises have fallen into the dilemma of "losses upon expansion" due to technological shortcomings, while top-tier battery enterprises are still expanding against the trend during the period of profound industry adjustment. The reason may lie in the annual report data.

Data shows that CATL's R&D investment in 2024 reached as high as 18.607 billion yuan, accounting for over 5% of its operating revenue. Its cumulative R&D investment over the past decade exceeded 70 billion yuan. As of the end of 2024, CATL owned a total of 43,400 patents and patent applications, with the number of new patent applications ranking first in the industry for five consecutive years.

BYD's annual R&D expenditure in 2024 reached 53.195 billion yuan, up 34.42% YoY, and its R&D intensity (R&D expenditure/operating revenue) reached 7.8%, significantly higher than the industry average. In the field of power batteries, BYD has formed a "patent matrix," with the blade battery technology achieving breakthroughs in energy density through structural optimization, and the relevant patent portfolio exceeding 300 items.

With huge R&D investments, top-tier battery enterprises have built an insurmountable technological moat. What is different this year is that, unlike in previous years when they were good at telling technological stories, they are more inclined to define the future with technology this year.

In 2025, CATL launched the Xiaoyao Dual-Core Battery in the power battery sector, ushering in the "dual-core era" of batteries. Its sodium-ion battery brand, "Na Xin," addresses the resource bottleneck and the low-temperature challenges in north China, and has achieved mass production and installation. The second-generation Shenxing Ultra-Fast Charging Battery can achieve a pure electric driving range of 1,000 kilometers... In the ESS sector, CATL's 587Ah battery cell has officially entered mass production and delivery, aiming to define the next generation of ESS battery cells with this product...

In 2025, BYD's blade battery continues to evolve. The second-generation flash-charging blade battery was globally launched on March 17th. With ultra-high voltage and ultra-high current, the "flash-charging battery" officially enters the "megawatt era" in terms of charging power, enabling vehicles to charge at the same speed as gasoline vehicles, achieving "400 kilometers of driving range with a 5-minute charge," breaking through technological ceilings once again...

Wang Xiaoqiang, Vice President of CALB, stated, "Since the beginning of this year, our company has continued to develop at a high speed. We have not only maintained a global leading position in the traditional power battery sector but also achieved a doubling of growth in the ESS market. Meanwhile, we have launched new products for fields such as aircraft and zero-carbon ships, achieving excellent results in the market."

More notably, in the face of the stringent new national standards for power batteries, CATL, BYD, and CALB, with their strong technological barriers, have all passed the detection tests for their relevant battery products, meeting the new national standards ahead of schedule.

Today, the positions of top-tier battery enterprises continue to solidify. According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, from January to May, a total of 50 power battery enterprises in China's NEV market achieved battery installations, an increase of 2 compared to the same period last year. The battery installations of TOP3, TOP5, and TOP10 enterprises were 176.1 GWh, 198.4 GWh, and 226.0 GWh, respectively, accounting for 73.0%, 82.2%, and 93.6% of the total installations. Among them, TOP3 enterprises occupied over 70% of the market share, demonstrating a significant concentration effect at the top.

Conclusion:

Capacity expansion is merely superficial; the core lies in the right to define technology.

Overall, under the "Matthew Effect" of accelerating industry concentration, capacity expansion has become a core strategy for top-tier battery enterprises to consolidate their competitive advantages. However, the essence of this competition has long surpassed the mere accumulation of capacity figures. When CATL reconstructs the battery cost curve through material innovation, and when BYD reshapes the energy replenishment standards with megawatt flash-charging technology... the strategic focus of top-tier enterprises is shifting from a mere "scale competition" to "defining technological standards."

In this scale competition defined by technological positioning, the first-tier enterprises are also leading China's battery army to innovate from within, launching a new offensive.